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Volume 9
Issue 3
Online publication date 2013-10-25
Title Forecasting economic crisis using gradient measurement of development and log-logistic function
Author Rafal Siedlecki, Daniel Papla
This paper shows that regardless of how good the economic situation is, sooner or later certain difficulties will appear. Hence, the idea has emerged to give  the analytical form to the logistic law based gradient measurement (synthetic measure) of selected financial data, which enables forecasting crises and economic downturns. The presented proposal of determining the economic cycle and the model of forecasting using the modified logistic function (log-logistic function) was tested with use of data regarding the Polish economy
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Keywords Law of growth, forecasting, economic crisis, time series analysis, warning signals, S-curve
Pages 28-40
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